Uberx - replacing idle automotive capacity with productively employed drivers

Having seen how much my riders love Uberx I am forming some conclusions about its potential. Today was a 14 rider day for my. Let's consider the impact of greatly expanded livery and Uberx service in a city like Washington DC.  This is a toy financial model. There are bucket loads of PhDs in the area who can do it right (after begging Uber to release some of its treasure trove of data).

I don't know how many cars sleep during the typical day downtown, but it is a lot. Let's consider replacing 100,000 of them with Uberx drivers (it could be a combination of livery and Uberx, but I'm keeping it simple.)

I made good money today delivering 14 rides over 9 hours (this will be another post). So let's consider 10 rides a day a decent showing for an Uberx driver. Ten rides per day because, as I explain below, in this toy analysis, the average ride is probably longer.

Let's consider those 100,000 cars sitting downtown to represent 200,000 rides in the metropolitan area. The real number is probably higher based on multiple trips per vehicle: one trip back and for to work and possibly another back and forth for other reasons. These vehicles probably mostly represent trips from the suburbs. The corresponding Uberx trip would either be a long drive in from the suburbs or, more likely a trip to a Metro station. My two trips to suburban Metro stations were better fares than most of my downtown trips.

So, in order to keep 100,000 vehicles out of downtown, we need 200,000 rides or 20,000 Uberx driver days each and every workday of the week. The distribution of the rides is clustered, hence the need for the type of surge capacity the Uberx model can provide. Let's assume an average ride of 10 miles. At $0.56/mile for the all in cost of using an automobile established by the IRS, that is $1,120,000 in forgone automotive costs on the part of the riders. Let's go with $10/day for parking and that is another $1 million in forgone parking fees. That works out to $100/day in forgone cost for each Uberx driver. With Uberx institutionalized and supported throughout the metropolitan area, many families will be able to get rid of their second car, saving even more money.

This notion does not decrease traffic unless it diverts traffic from downtown to the suburban Metro stations. I suspect it would. Today, I drove down many close in streets primarily devoted to parking, not traffic. Consider the impact of a car free culture on those close in neighborhoods. Consider how much better traffic would flow without so much on street parking. Some of those parking spaces would be converted to loading zones for livery and Uberx.

The DC area has two idle capacity problems. Too many idle vehicles and too many people who do not have the skills for jobs in health care or information technology. The Uberx model can help with both.